Vaccine - Covid-19

Martha asked about the speed of the vaccine development and is that a concern.

Simply, Yes.

The primary concern is efficacy. A close second, is safety.

Obviously, if the vaccine doesn't work, no one cares whether it's safe or not.

Define what vaccine efficacy means -

We don't have an accepted standard. If we did, we probably stop giving the flu vaccine.

We certainly would have stopped giving PneumoVax a long time ago and probably should have (Prevnar-13 is great; PneumoVax is the only vaccine in use with no clinical benefit).

So, what would the FDA, CDC, NIH and the companies consider as efficacious?

If the Covid-19 vaccine blocked infections in 25% or more, I suspect that would be considered a positive result.

If the vaccine didn't block infection, but improved outcomes, then that too might be enough, depending on the outcome and the percent improvement.

But there is tremendous pressure on the Feds to provide something.

The FDA screwed over HCQ so badly, it's beyond embarrassing.

So, the Feds want to give something positive to prevent infection, I mean, of course, BESIDES the fantastic protection conferred by surgical masks.

Testing this vaccine may be trickier because the pandemic moves quickly.

I don't know which states the vaccines are being tested in.

But hopefully, they went to states that hadn't been hit yet.

If they are testing vaccine efficacy in Jersey, then they are going to have a very tough time proving efficacy, since the case rate has dropped so much, so quickly.

But if they were already testing people in Texas, Arizona or Florida before they got hit, then it will be no problem.

Back to rushing a vaccine - Well, who is going to take it?

If the rate or incidence of new Covid-19 cases in Jersey continues to drop, who is going to take it and why?

Maybe there will still be so much hysteria surrounding Covid-19 when/if the vaccine is released, people will run to take it. Maybe they will force HCWs to take it, like they make use take the Flu vaccine each year.

But if the pandemic moves on and doesn't surge back, it may be a tough sell to the people in those states.

Vaccine safety is a close second to efficacy. You are giving lots of healthy people this shot or vaccine and if there is a serious, but low-risk side effect, then it could be a big deal.

Imagine this hypothetical scenario -

The US vaccinates 1/2 of the population (165,000,000 people or so);

The vaccine causes a moderate side effect, but rarely, only 1 in 10,000 or 0.01%.

Well, that means 0.01% of 165 million or 16,500 people will get that side effect.

Now, if you only give that same vaccine to 1,650,000, then only 165 people would get that side effect.

So, as with everything Covid-19, vaccine development is fraught with unique issues and challenges.

BTW, how many of you would sign up to take a Covid-19 vaccine today?

How many would take a West Nile Virus vaccine, if one came out now?

Stephen