For a woman named after a horse, Flicka

There has been some yellow journalism about the vaccines and about the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Ok, there's been lots of yellow journalism, which used to be a bad thing which no reputable reporter would write and no reputable paper would publish.

Now, it's winning Pulitzers.

The variants from the UK, Brazil and South Africa are being discussed in the press.

Word is these variants are more contagious than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.

I have been asked about this question many times.

No way in hell are these strains more infectious than the strain that affected northern NJ and NYC in March and April. No fucking way.

I have told this story often about the respiratory virus panel we use to on pts with respiratory tract infections. Typically, well over 50% tests positive for one of the viruses in the panel, which tests for over 20 viruses.

In early March, people in Jersey started social distancing. By mid-March, the respiratory panel tests were all negative. Anyone with a respiratory tract infection, meaning anything from common cold symptoms to pneumonia, had COVID.

In other words, social distancing STOPPED influenza dead in its tracks. Prior to Covid, here in Jersey, we were having a pretty tough flu season. By mid-March, flu disappeared.

No more rhinovirus infections or other coronavirus infections, no metapneumovirus or enterovirus infections -

Still, Covid cases kept coming in, lots of them.

So, if these new variants are more infectious than that strain, all of England would have already been infected, as the variant emerged in September.

Ok, what about vaccine efficacy against the strains?

The vaccines appear to work just as well against the UK strain.

Israel is using the Pfizer mRNA vaccine and they have vaccinated over 1/3 of their population.

The Guardian reports

"Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/israel-covid-vaccination-data-offers-hope-exit-pandemic

And Israel also reported that those vaccinated were protected against the UK strain. There is some concern about the South African strain. The vaccines are still effective but may not be as quite effective, but time will soon tell. The Brazilian strain should be covered well by the vaccines.

Maybe I haven't explained this enough -

We are in the middle of huge, beautiful, complicated experiment.

We are using several different vaccines which underwent minimal testing against a virus, we had no idea if a vaccine would work at all.

We are using several, very different vaccine approaches.

So, we have 2 mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna), 2 dead virus vaccines, 3 adenoviral based vector vaccines, and 1 subunit vaccine - all showing good to great efficacy to date. And we have many more vaccine candidates are in phase 3 (the last phase of clinical trial testing).

The subunit vaccine from Novavax had an efficacy rate in the UK = 89.3% and this is just the spike protein...that's pretty much it. Novavax's vaccine just needs regular refrigeration. Australian, well before these results were known, purchased 51 million doses of Novavax's vaccine, presumably because it's easier to make, to store and to distribute, perhaps, because Australia is hot and it's harder to keep vaccines cold there.

If we just follow the data, we react to and learn from the data, this thing will be over soon.

If we don't, well, we deserve what we get.

Disclaimer: I have not invested in any vaccine company. No one, sadly, has paid me for any of these opinions.

P.S. - I did tell my friends to invest in Novovax. I explained to them after the initial vaccine efficacy results came out that Novovax's vaccine had to work or the others were lying. They bought the stock and now like me much more than before. It was funny; I wasn't guessing. It was a sure thing. But because my integrity is so very important and so, I could do things like write this blog with a clear conscience, I did not invest in Novovax or any other Covid vaccine company.

Good article on some of the Covid vaccines.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497